Are battery prices going up in 2027? Two changes land on 1 January

The short answer is yes, a home battery is likely to cost a bit more in 2027 than it does today. There are two reasons, and they both arrive on the same date, 1 January 2027. One is the federal discount getting smaller, which is certain. The other is the cost of the battery itself, which is likely to rise but by an amount nobody can promise. Here is each one in plain terms.

1. The federal discount steps down

The Cheaper Home Batteries Program discounts a battery through certificates called STCs. You get a set number of certificates for every kWh of usable capacity, and that number, the STC factor, depends on the day the battery is installed.

• January to April 2026: 8.4
• May to December 2026: 6.8 (where we are now)
• January to June 2027: 5.7
• July to December 2027: 5.2

After that it keeps dropping every six months, down to 2.1 by late 2030. The factor was higher at the start of this year, but 6.8 is as high as it will ever be again.

What that looks like for common battery sizes:

• 10 kWh usable: 68 certificates if installed in 2026, 57 from 1 January 2027. That is 11 fewer.
• 14 kWh usable: 95 certificates in 2026, 79 from 1 January. That is 16 fewer.
• 20 kWh usable: 119 certificates in 2026, 100 from 1 January. That is 19 fewer.

The government's Clearing House price for a certificate is $40 before GST, and the open market is usually a little lower. At $40, 16 fewer certificates on a 14 kWh battery is $640 less discount. Our guide to the Cheaper Home Batteries Program explains the size tiers and who is eligible.

2. China ends its export rebate on batteries

This one gets far less attention. Most home batteries sold here are made in China or built around Chinese cells. Until this year, Chinese makers could claim back 9% tax on the batteries they exported, which kept their export prices down.

In January 2026 China's Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration announced the rebate would be wound back:

• From 1 April 2026 it fell from 9% to 6%.
• From 1 January 2027 it is removed completely.

When the rebate goes, the maker either absorbs the cost or raises the export price. Some of each is the likely result.

What we can learn from solar panels

Panels have already been through this. Their export rebate was removed in a single step on 1 April 2026. Why Solar, an Australian solar business, says the panel part of system costs rose 9 to 10% straight away, and that most quotes in the market had moved within weeks.

For batteries, the same business estimates the April cut added roughly 3% to battery imports and expects about 6% more once the rebate is gone. Treat those as one company's estimate. What gets passed on will vary by brand.

Lithium has gone up as well

The main raw material is also dearer than it was. Lithium prices in China have been climbing since the middle of 2025. By January 2026, Asia Financial reported lithium carbonate futures at their highest since November 2023, up 167% from the 2025 low.

Lithium is only one part of the cost of a battery, so a battery does not rise by anything like that much. It does mean cell costs are heading up after a long stretch of heading down.

So how much more will a battery cost?

Nobody knows the exact figure, and you should be wary of anyone who says they do. What we can say:

• The discount drop is fixed, and you can count it in certificates from the list above.
• A rise in the battery itself is likely, and likely modest. For scale, 6% on $1,000 of battery hardware is $60. Installation, switchboard work and cabling are not affected.
• It will not all happen overnight. Exporters are expected to ship heavily before the deadline, and stock that is already in Australia was bought at the old price. A rise shows up as new stock lands.
• Both changes push in the same direction, so they add together.

What to do about it

If you already know you want a battery, having it installed before 31 December 2026 gets you the 6.8 factor and beats the export change. The date that counts is the day the battery is installed and certified, not the day you order, and installers get busy before Christmas.

If you are still working out whether a battery suits your home, do not let the date rush you. Size comes first. A battery that is too big or too small for your solar and your evenings costs you more than either of these changes will. Our guide to what size battery your home needs is a good place to start.

To see real numbers for your own home, design your system on your own roof, add a battery, and get a real installed price for it.